Brandon Sheppard has spent three months atop the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series standings. Devin Moran has spent the closing weeks making that position increasingly uncomfortable.
Now, 45 points separate the drivers entering Carl Short’s 46th annual ARP Dirt Track World Championship at West Virginia Motor Speedway in Mineral Wells that wraps up the season with the revised Saturday-Sunday schedule. Moran has trimmed 95 points from Sheppard’s advantage over the last four races, setting up a 100-lap showdown around the WVMS third-mile bullring between the stalwart Sheppard and the surging Moran.
The stakes extend well beyond the championship trophy, too. Either driver could collect as much as $470,000 Sunday by combining the DTWC’s $100,000 winner’s purse, the $250,000 Lucas Oil championship payout and $120,000 in potential bonuses.
Here’s the tale of the tape as Sheppard and Moran prepare to settle the title:
By The Numbers
Devin Moran: In 38 points races, Moran has six victories, nine runner-up finishes, 21 top-fives and 30 top-10s, with an average starting position of 10.7 and average finish of 6.2. He has four finishes of 15th or worse, all after Speedweeks. Over his last five series races, he’s finished seventh, fifth, first, third and second for a 3.6 average.
Brandon Sheppard: In 38 points races, Sheppard has six victories, five runner-up finishes, 21 top-fives and 31 top-10s, with average starting and finishing positions of 6.5. He has six finishes of 15th or worse, but only two since exiting Speedweeks. Over his last five series races, he’s finished second, eighth, sixth, second and sixth for a 4.8 average.
Why Sheppard Wins
Rocket1’s strongest defense is the consistency that’s planted them atop the standings.
Since exiting Georgia-Florida Speedweeks, he has finished outside the top 10 just three times in Lucas Oil competition. One came in the North-South 100’s 15-car pileup after he started fourth. The others were a 16th-place finish July 10 at Lucas Oil Speedway and a 12th-place finish Aug. 29 at Port Royal Speedway.
That’s a remarkably dependable floor and puts Moran almost in a must-win situation (see championship scenarios below). With fourth or better guaranteeing the title, Sheppard and Rocket1 Racing simply need to deliver the consistency that’s made them so difficult to unseat.
Why Moran Wins
He’s found another gear at precisely the right time. He’s yet to finish off the podium in his brand-new Longhorn, recording a victory, third and second in a car he called “the best race car I’ve ever driven” following his Pittsburgher triumph.
He also has something Sheppard lacks at WVMS: proof of winning pace for the duration of a feature. That edge could decide the championship.
Moran needs to put cars between himself and Sheppard, and his new Longhorn gives him reason to believe he can. If Moran keeps the good times rolling and Sheppard’s June struggles at WVMS resurface, the 45-point deficit is easily within reach.
How They Got Here
Hudson O’Neal emerged from Georgia-Florida Speedweeks with a 20-point lead over Devin Moran, who took command with his March 27 victory at Brownstown Speedway. After the tour’s following event, Brandon Sheppard sat sixth in points, 230 behind Moran.
O’Neal pulled even with Moran following May 1’s event at Circle City Raceway, then regained the lead. After May 2’s Florence Speedway stop, Moran trailed O’Neal by 30 points but remained 220 ahead of Sheppard. Things unraveled for Moran over the next five races: he finished 20th at Fairbury, seventh at Eagle and 12th, 20th and 15th during Lucas Oil Speedway’s Show-Me 100 weekend, leaving him 250 behind O’Neal and 100 behind Sheppard.
O’Neal’s advantage peaked at 175 points following May 22’s Show-Me preliminary, but Sheppard whittled it to 10 by June 27’s Firecracker 100 at Lernerville Speedway. His July 9 victory at Iowa’s 34 Raceway vaulted Rocket1 Racing into the lead.
O’Neal pulled even the next night at Lucas Oil Speedway, but Sheppard reclaimed the top spot July 11 and has held it since.
Following July 18’s Silver Dollar Nationals weekend at Shelby County Speedway, Sheppard’s lead peaked at 135 points over O’Neal with Moran 230 points in arrears. Moran has since worked his way back into contention, gaining 95 points on Sheppard over the last four races to enter the DTWC just 45 behind.
The WVMS Factor
Both championship contenders have made two starts at the reconfigured West Virginia Motor Speedway, but Moran enters the DTWC with stronger results and more recent experience.
Moran advanced from 11th to fourth against a 41-car field in May 3’s Valvoline American Late Model Iron-Man Series event, then won Sept. 6’s Hillbilly Hundred over a 46-car field. Starting from the pole, he led the final 61 laps to snap a 21-race winless stretch dating to June 27’s Firecracker 100.
He also left encouraged by the track’s progress.
“Quite frankly, everybody knows it just wasn’t good (in the spring), and tonight, they’ve just made it way, way better,” Moran said. “I think every time we’ve been here, every time they’ve had a race, they made it better.”
Sheppard’s June 12-13 World of Outlaws doubleheader produced finishes of fourth and 13th, though both nights offered glimpses of winning speed. He led laps 30 and 32 of Friday’s 40-lapper before slipping to fourth. Saturday, he started from the pole and led the opening lap before steadily fading.
“We were just off,” Sheppard said that night. “We tested a little bit.”
Rather than dismiss the outing as a lost night, Sheppard viewed the disappointing finish as valuable information Rocket1 Racing could use upon its consequential return this very weekend.
“Obviously we learned what not to do,” he said. “All notes are good notes, even if they’re bad.”
The bottom line: Moran has already coursed — and won — a 100-lapper at WVMS. Sheppard has shown front-running potential, but must translate those June lessons into a title-worthy finish with the championship on the line.
Championship Scenarios
Brandon Sheppard clinches the title by finishing fourth or better regardless of Devin Moran’s result, eighth or better if Moran finishes second, 10th or better if Moran finishes third, or no worse than eight positions behind Moran if he finishes fourth or worse.
These scenarios assume both receive A-main points. Because points bottom out at 21st, any A-main finish secures Sheppard the title if Moran finishes 13th or worse. No qualifying bonus points will be awarded under the DTWC’s split-field preliminary format.
Lucas Oil points breakdown: 200-180-170-160-155-150-145-140-135-130-125-120-115-110-105-100-95-90-85-80-75, with 21st and worse receiving 75 points. Each driver also receives 50 participation points.
Tiebreakers
The series tiebreaker is most victories in championship points-earning events, followed by most runner-up finishes, third-place finishes and subsequent finishing positions until the tie is broken. Sheppard and Moran have six points-paying victories apiece, but Moran holds a 9-5 advantage in runner-up finishes, giving him the championship in any points tie. A Moran victory would give him the wins tiebreaker outright, while a Sheppard victory would clinch the title regardless.
Tiebreaking scenarios
Finishing positions producing a tie are: Moran first and Sheppard fifth; Moran second and Sheppard ninth; or Moran third and Sheppard 11th.
With Moran fourth or worse, a tie occurs when Sheppard finishes nine positions behind him, provided the tying position is 21st or better. When that position is 21st, any worse finish also produces a tie because the points remain at 75. Moran wins the championship in each tie scenario.
The $470,000 Opportunity
A perfect Sunday would deliver $250,000 for the Lucas Oil championship, $100,000 for winning the DTWC, $100,000 for the Big River Steel Bonus Program title, $15,000 for the Arizona Sport Shirts Crown Jewel Cup and $5,000 as the highest-finishing eligible Lucas Oil driver.
Sheppard’s path: A DTWC victory guarantees him the Lucas Oil championship and the highest-finisher bonus. To complete the $470,000 sweep, he also must overcome a 105-point deficit to Moran and an 85-point deficit to Ricky Thornton Jr. in the Big River Steel standings, plus deficits of 75 to Thornton and 40 to Moran in the Crown Jewel Cup. A Sheppard victory with Moran finishing 18th or worse and Thornton 14th or worse would give him both bonus titles outright.
Moran’s path: A DTWC victory secures the highest-finisher bonus and the Big River Steel title, where he leads Thornton by 20 points and Sheppard by 105. Sheppard must finish fifth or worse for Moran to claim the Lucas Oil championship. Moran also needs Thornton fifth or worse to erase his 35-point Crown Jewel Cup deficit outright.
My Pick: Brandon Sheppard
All the props to Moran for making this title race interesting, but I’m sticking with Sheppard. His floor is typically a back-end top-10 finish, which leaves Moran needing a victory or, depending on Sheppard’s finish, a podium run to steal the championship.
Just as telling is how Sheppard and Rocket1 Racing have brushed aside recent scares. He lost a lap early in the Pittsburgher and still salvaged sixth. Saturday at Eldora, his car momentarily stalled during a caution with three laps remaining, but he refired and finished sixth again.
Those moments could have tanked his championship bid. Instead, Rocket1 Racing keeps forging ahead. That combination of consistency and resilience gives me the feeling this season is meant to end with Sheppard and Rocket1 celebrating their first Lucas Oil title together — in the Shinnston-based team’s home state of West Virginia, no less.
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to reflect that no 10-point qualifying bonuses will be awarded at the DTWC because Saturday’s split-field preliminary program sets Sunday’s lineups. The championship scenarios and related analysis have been revised accordingly. Sheppard enters Sunday’s finale with a 45-point lead and clinches the title with a finish of fourth or better, regardless of Moran’s result.