By Race Chapman

The 2017 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross season is coming to a close, and Pro Circuit Kawasaki will be showing up to the Ironman National in Crawfordsville, Indiana, on Saturday with red No. 1 plates and championship jerseys for Eli Tomac to don after the race.

It isn't over yet, but it's over. Barring a disaster of apocalyptic proportions, Tomac should have no problem picking up the 22 points necessary to guarantee the championship.

This season has been a bit of a strange one. No racer seemed to stand out as dominant throughout the entire series. Instead, the momentum shifted in a full circle from Marvin Musquin, to Tomac, to Blake Baggett, back to Tomac, and finally back to Musquin. In fact, disregarding races in which Musquin crashed or was injured, he was probably the most dominant racer of the series.

But points do not disregard crashes or injuries, and consistency is king. And despite the fact that Tomac has been particularly inconsistent, he has still been marginally better than the rest in that department.

It's a bit academic to discuss now, but there is something strange that seems to happen to Tomac towards the end of every season. Or at least, every season that he is near the top spot.

Starting in the 2013 Supercross season, Tomac displayed a tendency to choke in the last few rounds of a close series. In that particular season, Ken Roczen actually failed to qualify for the penultimate round in Salt Lake City, leaving Tomac with a golden opportunity.

Had Tomac won the round (or even just had a podium result), as everyone had expected him to do, he would have been ahead of Roczen going into Las Vegas and almost assuredly won the title. But instead, Tomac looked as if he had forgotten how to ride a motorcycle and ended up finishing sixth with a paltry 15 points. He won the last round, losing by a mere two points to Roczen.

Very fresh in Supercross fans' memory should be Tomac's result at New Jersey in April, also the penultimate round of that series. He was on fire during the latter half of the season, beating champion Ryan Dungey in nearly every race. But in East Rutherford, NJ, Tomac had the lead early on and simply fell over, then made mistake after mistake to end up finishing eighth -- earning only 13 points. Again, had he finished in the podium, he almost certainly would have clinched the title.


(Eli Tomac needs to watch out because Marvin Musquin is coming. Marvin Musquin, Instagram)

This year started to look eerily similar, with Tomac finishing ninth overall at Unadilla in Edmeston, New York, and seventh in the first moto of Budds Creek in Mechanicsville, Maryland. Fortunately for Tomac, he had already amassed enough of a lead over his KTM-based rivals in Baggett and Musquin that these results didn't blow his championship.

One has to wonder whether Dungey -- Mr. Consistency -- would have taken yet another championship had he not retired shortly before the season. Barring injury, it would be very hard to make an argument to the contrary.

Tomac seems to be the exact opposite of Dungey in many ways. Whereas Dungey preferred to ride his pace and accept a never-ending string of podium results, Tomac prefers to push his limits to win, often crashing in the process. And when the pressure is on, Tomac doesn't seem to do very well. This in stark contrast to the iron-willed, seven-time champion Dungey.

Last week at Budds Creek was a perfect example. In the first moto, Tomac floundered around in ninth for most of the race before finishing seventh. Then in the second moto he came back to win. So what was the issue? Why is a rider with the speed to win, seemingly at will, unable to advance beyond seventh place?

Starts are one issue. Tomac has never really been a strong starter. Throughout his 250 career, he was content with coming from the back and then just blowing by everyone during the 30-minute and two-lap motos. It worked out fairly well, getting him a championship in that class.

However, in the shorter races of Supercross it didn't go quite as well, and on the 450s he has not had the great disparity in speed against the veteran racers necessary to execute that strategy effectively. It's a somewhat bizarre phenomenon, and it seems like the only thing preventing Tomac from being an absolute dominant force in motocross happens in the first 200 feet of the racetrack. Which was, of course, Dungey's specialty.

Musquin generally gets solid starts, and his consistency when not injured was quite good. In fact, had it not been for the two "zero point" motos, Musquin would likely either be leading the championship or close to it. He trails Tomac by just over 30 points, would have gained 22 during one moto with a retirement, and would have likely gained at least 15 during another that he couldn't race due to injury.

It's truly a shame that it worked out that way for the likeable Frenchman, because this could have been another truly epic points battle like the one seen in Las Vegas between Tomac and Dungey earlier this year.

Naturally, it always seems a little silly to criticize the program of a racer who is very likely going to win his first national championship in the premier class. And perhaps Tomac will gain the confidence necessary to avoid the late-stage choking that has been an issue for him so many times. Obviously, he has the speed to win championships and plenty of healthy years left assuming he doesn't get hurt.

He should probably work on his starts for next year though, because Musquin is coming and he typically doesn't choke.

Weekly Articles from Race Chapman

Joey Crown Builds Foundation For Improvement
Justin Cooper, Fifth In First Pro Race
Tomac Will Earn Title, But Not Ambassadorship
Keep The Loretta's Competitive
Eli Tomac Extends Lead In Spite Of Challenges
Motocross Is A War Of Attrition
The Beginning of a Beautiful Rivalry
Justin Cooper's Successful Amateur Swan Song
Exclusive One-On-One With Joey Crown Before The Mammoth Mountain MX

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